Paraguay vs France
Group X · Saturday, July 4, 2026, 21:00 UTC · Philadelphia
The model's read
The model makes France strong favourites at 71%, leaving 13% for Paraguay and 17% for the draw. Goals project around 0.9–2.3 in an open game (both teams to score 52%, over 2.5 63%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring France. Confidence sits at 63/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Paraguay win
12.5%
Draw
16.9%
France win
70.5%
Expected goals
0.90 – 2.33
Scoreline cluster
0-2 / 0-1 / 1-2
top exact 0-2 · 10.7%
Confidence
63/100
Result lean
France dominant
Score band
Favorite multi-goal edge
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
0-3 at 8.3% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
21/100
Data quality
87/100
Uncertainty band
59 – 82%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Paraguay vs France.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 02:02:40 UTC.
Final (blended) home
12.5%
Final draw
16.9%
Final away
70.5%
Source weights applied
- technical57.8%
- learned16.1%
- market0.0%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- marketnot used
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel99 signals
- fundamental66 signals
Why this prediction
Partial coverage — some signal classes are missing.
Technical
85/100
Fundamentals
83/100
Betting
0/100
Prediction market
77/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · learned signal favours away (49.7 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours away (37.4 pp above uniform)
- · crowd signal favours away (34.8 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- No standout risks.
Missing: bookmaker market · external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Paraguay win
1.6%
Draw
15.4%
France win
83.0%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
74/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Paraguay
28 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Paraguay (out — ruled out)
France
71 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Isak Hien (out — ruled out)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
52.2%
Over 1.5
81.8%
Over 2.5
62.7%
Over 3.5
40.4%
Under 2.5
37.3%
Market intelligence
Market calibration unavailable.
No live odds have been ingested for this match yet.
Bookmaker prices typically populate closer to kickoff — when they do, this panel will show implied-probability consensus, the gap to our model and how the line is moving.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: France 71% to win, 14% for Paraguay, 15% draw. Expected goals: France 2.33 vs Paraguay 0.90. Scoreline cluster: 0-2 / 0-1 / 1-2. Top exact 0-2 only 10.7%. Goal environment open (BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 63%). Favorite multi-goal edge. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 63/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.