Group A

Projected table from Monte Carlo simulations, plus every group-stage fixture.

Projected standings

Averaged across all simulations.

#	Team	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Group W%	Adv %
1	Mexico	4.5	1.2	0.7	1.0	4.8	4.3	0.5	29.9	68.1
2	Czech Republic	4.4	1.2	0.7	1.0	4.7	4.3	0.4	28.5	66.9
3	South Korea	4.1	1.1	0.7	1.1	4.4	4.4	0.0	24.4	62.8
4	South Africa	3.5	0.9	0.8	1.3	3.7	4.6	-0.9	17.1	52.2

Scenario explorer

Each fixture below shows the conditional outcome distribution.

Group A

Thu, Jun 11 · 19:00 UTC

47% conf

Mexico

Elo 1913

South Africa

Elo 1560

MEX 47%Draw 20%RSA 33%

South Africa live

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 1-1 / 0-1 · top exact 11.0%

xG 1.59 – 1.28BTTS 56%·O2.5 55%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.9%

Match details

Group A

Thu, Jun 11 · 02:00 UTC

43% conf

South Korea

Elo 1723

Czech Republic

Elo 1680

KOR 38%Draw 20%CZE 42%

South Korea live

Scoreline cluster 0-1 / 1-1 / 1-0 · top exact 9.0%

xG 1.51 – 1.60BTTS 60%·O2.5 60%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.5%

Match details

Group A

Thu, Jun 18 · 16:00 UTC

45% conf

Czech Republic

Elo 1680

South Africa

Elo 1560

CZE 48%Draw 20%RSA 32%

South Africa live

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 10.5%

xG 1.67 – 1.31BTTS 57%·O2.5 57%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.1%

Match details

Group A

Thu, Jun 18 · 01:00 UTC

44% conf

Mexico

Elo 1913

South Korea

Elo 1723

MEX 41%Draw 20%KOR 39%

Very balanced

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 1-1 / 0-1 · top exact 8.8%

xG 1.59 – 1.54BTTS 61%·O2.5 61%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.6%

Match details

Group A

Wed, Jun 24 · 01:00 UTC

42% conf

Czech Republic

Elo 1680

Mexico

Elo 1913

CZE 40%Draw 20%MEX 40%

Very balanced

Scoreline cluster 1-1 / 0-1 / 1-0 · top exact 8.6%

xG 1.59 – 1.59BTTS 62%·O2.5 62%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.7%

Match details

Group A

Wed, Jun 24 · 01:00 UTC

46% conf

South Africa

Elo 1560

South Korea

Elo 1723

RSA 34%Draw 21%KOR 45%

South Africa live

Scoreline cluster 0-1 / 1-0 / 1-1 · top exact 11.4%

xG 1.27 – 1.53BTTS 54%·O2.5 53%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.7%

Match details