Ivory Coast vs Norway
Group X · Tuesday, June 30, 2026, 17:00 UTC · Dallas (Arlington)
The model's read
Norway are clear favourites at 50%, against 27% for Ivory Coast and 23% for a draw. Goals project around 1.6–1.8 in an open game (both teams to score 64%, over 2.5 66%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Norway. Confidence sits at 46/100 but upset risk is high — variance and form keep the underdog live.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Ivory Coast win
27.3%
Draw
22.5%
Norway win
50.1%
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.83
Scoreline cluster
1-2 / 0-1 / 1-1
top exact 1-2 · 8.8%
Confidence
46/100
Result lean
Norway narrow edge
Score band
Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
2-2 at 6.9% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
no exact score is dominant; BTTS 64% and Over 2.5 66% both elevated; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
50/100
Data quality
83/100
Uncertainty band
31 – 62%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Ivory Coast vs Norway.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 01:01:21 UTC.
Final (blended) home
27.3%
Final draw
22.5%
Final away
50.1%
Source weights applied
- technical57.8%
- learned16.1%
- market0.0%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- marketnot used
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel90 signals
- fundamental33 signals
Why this prediction
Partial coverage — some signal classes are missing.
Technical
73/100
Fundamentals
82/100
Betting
0/100
Prediction market
77/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours away (34.8 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours away (31.9 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours away (12.8 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- No standout risks.
Missing: bookmaker market · external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Ivory Coast win
4.2%
Draw
30.6%
Norway win
65.2%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
48/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Ivory Coast
3 articles / 14d
Norway
87 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Friendships (out — suspended)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
64.5%
Over 1.5
83.4%
Over 2.5
65.7%
Over 3.5
43.8%
Under 2.5
34.3%
Market intelligence
Market calibration unavailable.
No live odds have been ingested for this match yet.
Bookmaker prices typically populate closer to kickoff — when they do, this panel will show implied-probability consensus, the gap to our model and how the line is moving.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Norway 46% to win, 35% for Ivory Coast, 19% draw. Expected goals: Norway 1.83 vs Ivory Coast 1.56. Scoreline cluster: 1-2 / 0-1 / 1-1. Top exact 1-2 only 8.8%. Goal environment open (BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 66%). Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 46/100. This is a low-confidence call — uncertainty is wide.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
High upset risk — variance, tactical fit, or recent form suggests the underdog is live.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.