Colombia vs Ghana
Group X · Friday, July 3, 2026, 01:30 UTC · Kansas City
The model's read
The model makes Colombia strong favourites at 57%, leaving 22% for Ghana and 21% for the draw. Goals project around 1.9–1.3 in an open game (both teams to score 59%, over 2.5 61%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Colombia. Confidence sits at 50/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Colombia win
56.9%
Draw
21.4%
Ghana win
21.7%
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.25
Scoreline cluster
1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1
top exact 1-0 · 10.0%
Confidence
50/100
Result lean
Colombia clear edge
Score band
Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
3-1 at 6.1% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
no exact score is dominant; BTTS 59% and Over 2.5 61% both elevated; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
40/100
Data quality
80/100
Uncertainty band
40 – 68%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Colombia vs Ghana.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 01:01:24 UTC.
Final (blended) home
56.9%
Final draw
21.4%
Final away
21.7%
Source weights applied
- technical57.8%
- learned16.1%
- market0.0%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- marketnot used
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel34 signals
- fundamental16 signals
Why this prediction
Partial coverage — some signal classes are missing.
Technical
75/100
Fundamentals
83/100
Betting
0/100
Prediction market
77/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · learned signal favours home (40.5 pp above uniform)
- · crowd signal favours home (34.8 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (20.7 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- No standout risks.
Missing: bookmaker market · external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Colombia win
73.9%
Draw
23.4%
Ghana win
2.8%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
61/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Colombia
33 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Sanchez (out — ruled out)
Ghana
1 article / 14d
Goals markets
BTTS yes
58.8%
Over 1.5
80.3%
Over 2.5
60.8%
Over 3.5
38.5%
Under 2.5
39.2%
Market intelligence
Market calibration unavailable.
No live odds have been ingested for this match yet.
Bookmaker prices typically populate closer to kickoff — when they do, this panel will show implied-probability consensus, the gap to our model and how the line is moving.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Colombia 54% to win, 27% for Ghana, 19% draw. Expected goals: Colombia 1.89 vs Ghana 1.25. Scoreline cluster: 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1. Top exact 1-0 only 10.0%. Goal environment open (BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 61%). Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 50/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.