Switzerland vs Colombia
Group X · Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 20:00 UTC · Vancouver
The model's read
It's finely balanced — Colombia 34%, Switzerland 33% and 33% for the draw. Goals project around 1.6–1.4 (both teams to score 58%, over 2.5 57%). The biggest single factor is Injuries & suspensions, favouring Switzerland. Confidence sits at 46/100 but upset risk is high — variance and form keep the underdog live.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Switzerland win
33.1%
Draw
33.0%
Colombia win
33.9%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.41
Scoreline cluster
1-0 / 1-1 / 0-1
top exact 1-0 · 10.0%
Confidence
46/100
Result lean
Draw-leaning
Score band
Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
2-2 at 6.2% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
no exact score is dominant; BTTS 58% and Over 2.5 57% both elevated; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
52/100
Data quality
87/100
Uncertainty band
28 – 59%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Switzerland vs Colombia.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 01:01:27 UTC.
Final (blended) home
33.1%
Final draw
33.0%
Final away
33.9%
Source weights applied
- technical57.8%
- learned16.1%
- market0.0%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- marketnot used
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel37 signals
- fundamental18 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
72/100
Fundamentals
82/100
Betting
0/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · learned signal favours away (9.0 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours away (3.0 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: technical vs crowd disagree (conflict score 100)
- · crowd signal is against away (-33.3 pp below uniform)
- · Top outcome only 33.9% — very open match
Missing: bookmaker market · external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Switzerland win
18.0%
Draw
39.7%
Colombia win
42.3%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
30/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Switzerland
4 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Jhon Cordoba (out — ruled out)
Colombia
33 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Sanchez (out — ruled out)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
58.0%
Over 1.5
77.9%
Over 2.5
57.4%
Over 3.5
35.0%
Under 2.5
42.6%
Market intelligence
Market calibration unavailable.
No live odds have been ingested for this match yet.
Bookmaker prices typically populate closer to kickoff — when they do, this panel will show implied-probability consensus, the gap to our model and how the line is moving.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Switzerland 43% to win, 37% for Colombia, 20% draw. Expected goals: Switzerland 1.57 vs Colombia 1.41. Scoreline cluster: 1-0 / 1-1 / 0-1. Top exact 1-0 only 10.0%. Goal environment open (BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 57%). Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game. Primary factor: injuries & suspensions difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 46/100. This is a low-confidence call — uncertainty is wide.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
High upset risk — variance, tactical fit, or recent form suggests the underdog is live.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.